Daily Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Figures

The average count of per-day murders each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh official figures. But, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to point to improved national safety.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was provided by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the smallest amount of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true considering the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was additionally concerning because it may mask periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.